This morning the Energy Information Administration announced that 91 bcf of natural gas was injected into storage last week. 

This was just 2 bcf from our estimate of 89 bcf after we got the print right on last week. 

Natural gas prices responded by initially jumping off a print that seemed to confirm slightly stronger power burns last week and a small dip in production. They then settled into a narrow range, settling a few cents higher on the day. 

Meanwhile, over the past couple of weeks we've been building new models for clients to better show them the relative impact of incremental weather changes on natural gas demand and what balance appears to be outside of weather. Some of these models were included for the first time in our EIA Rapid Release, where we showed how today's print compared on a weather-adjusted basis to past years and how it impacts our storage estimates moving forward, where we combine our reading of forward balance with our seasonal forecasts. 

These come with new modeling we are building looking to adjust power burns for weather and nuclear generation in an effort to show how tight/loose the market is outside of weather, and accordingly whether GWDD gains or losses to the forecast matter incrementally more for future price action. 

These models are then combined with some of our spread modeling, providing subscribers with a holistic view of the natural gas market including current/expected weather forecasts, current balance, and price action/risk.

Over the coming weeks we look to tweak, update, and build out even more of these models, releasing them to subscribers to both increase our accuracy and further educate about the current state of the natural gas market. Shown above are just a sampling of some of the models that are in the process of being fully rolled out. Our readings of balance will then be increasingly integrated with our latest forecasts, like those this morning that showed relatively minimal overnight trends but slight long-range cooling that seemed to cap upside for natural gas prices today.