Even as oil fights the rising dollar, the November crude oil contract closed above $50 a barrel and should be a clear warning sign that this market is poised to move higher. OPEC skeptics have doubted the cartel’s commitment for a production cut and to get non-OPEC nations to go along have done so at their own peril. I mean if the Chicago Cubs are just one win away from a World Series, then why would it be so crazy to believe that OPEC and non-OPEC might seal a deal. Even the impossible might happen!

Besides, despite their reputation of non-preforming deals, even OPEC has a better record over the years than the cubs! The Cubs haven’t been to a world Series since 1945 and OPEC and non-OPEC had a deal to work together! Back then there was a lot of skeptics and doubt but looking back now that OPEC/non-OPEC accord, it was the buy point of the decade!

Even as we hear boasts from Igor Sechin, the chief executive of Russia’s, Rosneft, bragging that Russia has the capacity to raise output by as much as 200 million metric tons a year, or 4 million barrels a day, he did not say that he would do it. He had better not because Vladimir Putin has already put his stamp on a production freeze or cut. Putin’s energy minister Alexander Novak dismissed Rosneft talk and said that an oil output freeze agreement was necessary to prop up prices and that he would make proposals to Saudi Arabian oil Minister Khalid al-Falih lends this weekend.

In fact, the Saudi oil minister is also saying quite clearly that the oil market is turning around and warning of shortages in the future. The Wall Street Journal said, “Mr. Falih said the oil industry was starved of financing during a downturn over the past two years in which crude prices fell to less than $28 a barrel this year from heights of $114 a barrel in 2014. Per Wood Mackenzie, the Scottish energy consultancy, the oil industry has slashed $1 trillion in capital spending in the past two years. “Many analysts are warning of supply shortfalls. I am in that camp.” Mr. Falih said. “There will be a period of shortage of supply.” In fact, Mr. Falih warned that at some point the Saudis would not have the capacity to make up for the shortfall.

That view is shared by me as I have written time and time again about the historic pullback in capital spending. The damage done to the oil industry from a price standpoint was almost unprecedented leading to a trillion-dollar cut back in capital spending. The double dip in the beginning of the year as the stock market had its worst start for the year, made the outlook even more bullish for the future. While everyone looks to shale oil producers to make up for the shortages, it is unlikely because the decline rates of wells will not make up for the supply that was lost.

The Journal also reported that Statoil ASA Chief Executive Eldar Saetre and Total SA Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne admonished industry leaders here about the dangers of underinvestment and future oil-supply. This comes at a time when the global oil market may already be in a supply deficit and this winter with an OPEC cut, we could see significant drawdown in global oil stocks. OPEC meets Nov. 3 in Vienna.