Gold suffered significant technical damage as prices broke down below $1300 and $1250. However, miners didn’t confirm the collapse in gold; prices merely drifted lower in a consolidation pattern. For that reason, I felt the attack on gold would be short-lived…though it lasted longer than I anticipated.

The 6-Month gold cycle stretched 29-weeks (average is 23-weeks) but it looks likes prices finally bottomed. Miners diverged and reversed higher on June 28th as gold extended lower into July 3rd. We could see some hesitation as gold recaptures the 10-day EMA, but prices have likely begun the next cycle advance.

There is notable resistance in gold between $1290 and $1310 that may prove challenging to overcome. Nevertheless, I believe we will regain these strongholds in the coming weeks as gold forges a path that ultimately breaks out above $1370 later this year.

US DOLLAR 

Prices closed below the first level required to establish a top. The topping process may take some time, but I believe the dollar will descend back below the 200-day MA and perhaps to new 2018 lows by year-end.

GOLD WEEKLY

Prices tested the longer term trendline, the 200-week MA, the December $1,238.30 low and stretched 6-weeks beyond the average (23-week) cycle duration. Sentiment is bearish, and the COT status is consistent with prior lows. Virtually everything supports a bottom. I expect gold to work its way higher and ultimately breakout above $1370 within the next 2-4 months.

GOLD DAILY 

Prices should work their way back above the 10-week EMA next week. Typically, the bulk of the advance coming out of a 6-Month low occurs during the first 6-8 weeks.

PLATINUM WEEKLY 

Platinum has been the worst performing precious metal for some time. Prices are at long-term support, and the COT picture has improved dramatically. Now, this doesn’t guarantee an immediate bottom, but I believe the bear market is about over.

PLATINUM COT PICTURE

Here is a chart of platinum courtesy of www.barchart.com. Note how in January 2013 and August 2016 Commercial Traders (smart money) had massive short positions (50,000+ contracts) while the Large speculators (dumb money) built record longs. Commercials have reduced their shorts from 60,317 (August 8th, 2016) to 656 and may soon become net long. Whereas, Large speculators have shifted from net long 55,949 (2016) to net short 6,115 contracts.

SILVER WEEKLY 

Prices spiked below the lower Bollinger band and tested support near $15.75. A weekly close above $16.20 will establish a bottom. Once set, prices should work their way above $17.50 and break loose from the extended consolidation pattern.

SILVER DAILY 

It appears prices overshot the lower boundary. Progressive closes above $16.20 will endorse a bottom.

GDX-

Miners stalled on Friday just above the 200-day MA. If gold bottomed as I suspect, then GDX should continue higher and attack April’s $23.31 high next week. Dropping and closing below $22.30 would challenge the near-term bullish posture.

GDXJ 

Juniors attacked but failed to close above the $33.51 swing high. We should see more upside next week. Prices would have to close below $33.00 to neutralize the near-term bullish potential.

JNUG 

I’m overweight JNUG and content with my current allocation.

USLV 

I bought another tranche (fourth) of USLV at $8.85 on Friday. I’m overweight and perhaps overcommitted to USLV. Nevertheless, I believe silver will break dramatically higher in the coming months.

SPY

Prices closed above short-term resistance, and the McClellan oscillator rose above zero. However, it would take a decisive move above 278 to break the intermediate stalemate. The DOW Industrials look much weaker and may begin to rollover next week.

INDU 

Prices are barely holding on to the 200-day MA and need to rally above 24,700 to promote more upside. Failing to recapture 24,700 in the coming days would prescribe a decline back to support between 23,200 and 23,600.

WTIC 

Prices touched and reversed off the 10-day EMA. If prices remain buoyant, I’ll look for a top between July 18th – 20th.

It’s been a rough couple of months, but I want to thank everyone that remained steadfast. I did my best to keep members informed as prices went against my forecast.