A couple of our most recently watched gold ratios...

Silver-Gold ratio bounced today, keeping the hopes of the ‘inflation trade’ alive.

Gold was down hard today, but the problem for the Palladium-Gold ratio is that the cyclical metal, Pd, was down harder.

Here’s the weekly view, showing what looks like a shoe-in that a negative macro signal is going to come about.

Insert here the usual caveats about tolerances on timing and individual indicators not being taken in a vacuum; but if this indicator is going to work as it has before, it’s message is not a pleasant one.  And no, I don’t have a clue about how this squares with the bullish things I am seeing in the Semi Equipment sector, another ‘canary’ that chirped the post-2012 up cycle.

It’s why you’ve got to love this market, I guess.  It’s wonderfully dysfunctional, in my opinion, mostly thanks to the historically vigorous levels of policy input post-2008.