Gold Forever 1200

Talking turkey this post-Thanksgiving, let's chew on the track of Gold in the above Scoreboard, which shows price in 2017 now as more buoyant than it was coming into year-end 2016. But the centerpiece trading range across the entirety of the track is the 1200 "handle", (a trading term used to express price by a round number).

And truth be told, regardless of the endless rationale, analyses, prognostications, hype and gripe across the spectrum of Gold writers, stackers, traders and investors, Gold these past five years has pretty much made its home in the 1200s. Whilst day-in and day-out, there are expectations that Gold may at any moment suddenly be off up into the 2000s, (or in some views, boffed down into the 800s), at the end of the day, "we ain't really going nowhere."

To be sure, Gold's guiding light -- the debasement of currencies -- traditionally has been "de rigueur" for price gains, certainly so through the mania of monetary manufacturing millennium-to-date -- at least until five years ago: come 2013, Gold did not resume gaining following its fall from the all-time high in 2011.

Oh yes, since then, the Stateside money supply (M2) has further increased by 31% (from $10.5 trillion to $13.8 trillion), but it has not worked a whit into the price of Gold. Rather, Gold by the consensus of all trading pressures is being valued "in as nauseam perpetuity" around 1200. The following graphic bears this out: it charts the closing weekly price of Gold by its "hundreds handle" for the past 17 years, the last five of which oscillate in and around the 1200 handle:

In viewing price this way, you'll recall it's no wonder we were recently told with respect to Gold by a financier friend in Monaco: "Well, it's dead money, isn't it." Moreover, we've poked our own fun at Gold, quipping in a missive this past May that in ten year's time, the voice from the radio shall say: "The Dow has reached 30,000 for the first time ever, Fed accommodation pushing the money supply across the $100 trillion mark; Oil is still clinging to the 200 level, while London Gold is 1279 the ounce." Terrific.

Still, per the above graphic if one regards the green track of stateside money supply as the "mean" to which Gold must ultimately regress, all will eventually be right with the monetary world.

For the present, from the "Extracting Blood From A Turnip Dept." we next turn to Gold's weekly bars. Therein we see that despite the parabolic trend being Short per the declining red dots, price itself is not actually going down ...which would be worse than going nowhere ... the latter basically remaining the case with Gold settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1288. It was the fourth week in the last five of a net price change of less than 10 points:

Thus clearly of late, were one to be simply holding a position in Gold, there's not a whole heck of a lot going on out there. But were one instead trading its day-to-day tide of spasticity, it's been quite the erratic ride, as too has been the case for the stock market. Here are the percentage tracks for the past 21 trading days of Gold and the S&P 500, both of which are about +1.5% from one month ago (up-down-up-down-up-down-up-down):

Now let's view the past three months of the daily bars for both Gold on the left and Silver on the right. Recall from the weekly bars that of late we've price essentially going sideways despite the descendingparabolic trend suggesting lower levels? Here we have the opposite case: Gold's baby blue dots of 21-day linear regression trend consistency are swiftly ascending, the sideways price also balking that suggestion of higher levels. Silver's "Baby Blues", whilst less robust, find her price similarly stuck:

As for the precious metals' 10-day Market Profiles, we find Gold (below left) up in a more thinly traded area than 'round its 1278 price supporter, whereas Silver (below right) as we've been seeing week-after-week is sticking to the 17.00 level:

Next let's look at the Economic Barometer as charted from a year ago-to-date, along with the S&P (red). No doubt about it, this has been a terrific upside run for the Baro since its bottoming in mid-September: so much so that we peeked back 20 years to see how the present stint compares. And what we found was not surprising, in understanding that the Econ Baro behaves more as an oscillator than as a uni-directional line, (such as gross domestic product, which basically rises as the population grows and so forth). This current rise in the Baro is coming up to an oscillative level where since the depths of 2008 it tends to run out of steam. Politically, one might note that the level of economic optimism is far firmer now than ' it was in the prior presidential cycle. Of course, should the "pending" tax bill not live up to its economically supportive expectations, which already are well "priced into the market" and then some, such ought be the catalyst that sends the Baro -- and certainly the S&P -- back south. Here's the one-year view:

Finally here we've the Gold Stack. And of the 21 line items therein ranging from the 1100 handle up to the 2700 handle, eight are depicted as being in the 1200 handle. Gold forever 1200 indeed! Here 'tis:

The Gold Stack
Gold's Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening "Scoreboard"): 2768
Gold’s All-Time High: 1923 (06 September 2011)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 1900 (22 August 2011)
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1750-1800
On Maneuvers: 1579-1750
The Floor: 1466-1579
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
Base Camp: 1377
2017's High: 1362 (08 September)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long: 1355
10-Session directional range: up to 1298 (from 1270) = +28 points or +2%
Trading Resistance: 1292
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
Gold Currently: 1288, (expected daily trading range ["EDTR"]: 13 points)
Trading Support: 1285 / 1278
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 1283
The Box: 1280-1240
The 300-Day Moving Average: 1253 and falling
2017's Low: 1147 (03 January)