E Gold Entering New Cycle

It appears gold is following a new 30-32 day cycle. Prices reached a cycle low on Tuesday, November 13th. We are three trading days into the next period, and the cycle turning point should arrive in late December.

The dollar cycle peaked on Monday, November 12th. That explains gold resilience on Monday and Tuesday as it appeared the dollar was breaking out of a 3-month consolidation. The breakout was false, and prices are dropping into a cycle low.

The bounce in metals and miners could last anywhere from 1-3 weeks. How high and how far they rebound depends on when/where the dollar finds a cycle low. The current dollar cycle supports a decline into late November early December. Consequently, metals and miners could bounce for another 2-weeks.

I’ll review the charts, but it may be worth trying to play the 1-2 week rebound. I’ll make a decision and update members on Monday.

GOLD

The 6-month gold cycle has been difficult to track. But it seems a more frequent 30-32 day cycle has emerged with some consistency. So what’s that mean? It suggests that we are 3-days into a new 30-day cycle and that the next turning point (probably a low) should arrive between the 27th and 31st of December.

I think we know approximately when the next low will come – now we need to figure out where. That, unfortunately, is a much harder question and depends on how where this new 30-day cycle peaks. If it peaks below $1246, then I’m pretty sure gold will break the $1167 low in late December. If this cycle closes progressively above $1246, then gold is likely to remain above the $1167 level in December.

US DOLLAR

Gold will likely peak when the dollar reaches a low. The dollar peaked on Monday, November 12th and prices are dropping into a daily cycle low. The short-term 16-17 day cycle suggests a bottom between November 30th and December 4th. Structurally I see a 5-wave structure off the 93.39 low. To maintain the bullish formation prices need to bottom above the 94.40 level.

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