Fed Chiefs Old And New

Last week featured testimony by two Chairpeople of the Federal Reserve or more specifically the current and latest former.

Janet Yellen, the newly minted Chair of the Fed, was most noted for her reply to a question regarding the pace of asset purchases and the taper there of.

“Asset purchases are not on a preset course, so if there’s a significant change in the outlook, certainly we would be open to reconsidering, but I wouldn’t want to jump to conclusions here,” or it would seem, does Janet want anyone else to jump.  The markets did applaud JY’s testimony by breaching the 1850 level on the S&P later in the week after a few failed attempts.

Some other points of note in Ms. Yellen’s remarks worth noting were her concurrence with the CBO that raising the minimum wage to $10.10 would cause the loss of 500,000 jobs.  The White House had said the CBO had overstated the job loss number but in true Fed independent fashion Janet she “wouldn’t want to argue with their [CBO’s] assessment.

Not only is Ms. Yellen’s independent streak evident with the White House but also with her former boss and now ex-Fed Chief Ben Bernanke. The two seem to disagree on the effect the Fed’s low interest rate policy in the 2000’s had on the housing market. Helicopter Ben, as he has been known from time to time, said the Fed’s policy at the time had no inflating effect on the housing market while Janet again said she “would not argue” with the economists that think there was a direct correlation between the low rates at the time and the increase in leverage in the financial system and the housing bubble.

One thing almost every person, economist or not, can agree on is the debilitating effects this winter has had on those in the Northeast. Ms. Yellen acknowledged as much saying that “unseasonably cold weather” had played a part in some of the disappointing economic numbers recently reported.  That her testimony was originally supposed to be delivered on February 13 but was delayed until last Thursday because of a storm is proof enough of her estimation.

The other Fed Chief or ex-Chief speaking Thursday was Ben Bernanke who was being deposed in the lawsuit being brought by Starr International Co with regard to the 2008 bailout of American International Group.  For those not familiar, Starr is an investment and charitable firm run by another ex-chief only this ex was the former Chief Executive Officer and largest shareholder of American International Group Inc. (AIG) at the time of the bailout.

It should also be noted that while Ben was the last of approximately 50 witnesses to be deposed he is the first former Fed chairman to be so on a formal matter related to decisions he made while still in the “chair”.

Others having gone through this process include then Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson and former head of the NY Fed and then Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.  James Cox, a law professor at Duke University, thinks that if these three gentlemen are eventually asked to testify in open court “giving their version of the facts, under oath, subject to cross examination, under the purview of a federal judge,” would be “of epic proportions”.

The case, in which Starr International Co. claims the government’s seizure of AIG amounted to an act of eminent domain or in legalese a government “taking” of its property that entitles it to “just compensation”.

The White House did its best to keep Ben hushed while he was still at the Fed but Judge Thomas Wheeler of the United States Court of Federal Claims recently ruled that he could not fathom having to decide the case without Mr. Bernanke’s testimony.

Janet Yellen, to date, has followed in her former bosses footsteps with regard to communicating openly about the Fed’s plans.  Ben Bernanke, while starting an era of open communications at the Fed might wish for just a little more privacy regarding his most recent testimony.

All opinions are those solely of the author and nothing contained herein is intended to be advice of any kind.

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